The Experts Weigh in with Their Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2024

Will any of them get it right?

At the end of every year, media outlets ask the experts for their mortgage rate predictions. Most years, predictions vary wildly. This year is no exception.

Depending on who you ask, 2024 mortgage rates could be near 8% by the end of next year, or below 6%.

So, from around the webisphere, I’ve gathered a variety of expert opinions for mortgage rate predictions 2024:

Where are mortgage rates headed? First up, let’s ask Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These organizations are the largest purchasers of home mortgages in the country, and the industry generally looks to them for guidance.

  • Freddie Mac  – Freddie predicts rates will remain above 6%, with an expected range of 6.8 to 7.9%.
  • Fannie Mae – Has a little more optimistic outlook, suggesting a range of 6.1% to 7.6%

What about the bankers and brokers?

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association – Representing lenders large and small, predicts rates starting at 7.1% at the start of the year, falling to 6.1% by the end.

The people (like me) who make their living selling houses need reliable data.

Here are some other reports on the subject:

  • CBS News Report on Mortgage Prediction and Real Estate Prices has one expert predicting 5.5% by the end of the year.

So, who’s got it right? Why the wide range among all of these experts? The reality is, no one knows where rates are heading. They’re making their best, educated guesses, but the economy, consumer behavior, world events, elections and other factors can cause rates to go one way or another.

Although there’s no agreement on a number, all of the experts cited believe we’ll see lower rates in 2024 than we saw this year.

If rates remain high…

If those predicting rates at the higher end, such as Freddie Mac hold true, that’s still lower than the peak of 8.5% we saw just in October. How will that affect home sales? People still need housing, and we expect that though the pool of buyers will be smaller, there are those who are motivated to buy and can afford to do so. Many will buy and hope to refinance when rates do come down.

Keep in mind that rates affect sellers who themselves become buyers. The higher rates may mean that more will choose to remain in their current homes, waiting for rates to come down. That’s happening today, and with fewer homes on the market, there are enough buyers out there that prices have risen throughout the year, in some markets surpassing the previous high prices of early 2022.

If rates come down…

If predictions of rates in the 5.5 to 6% range come true, will they be low enough for homeowners to be willing to sell and then buy replacement properties? If so, we’ll see an increase in inventory.

The lower rates will also attract new buyers, and there will be more demand. What happens when there’s more demand than supply?

What to do… 

No one’s got a crystal ball, or at least an accurate one. A few years ago, Zillow was predicting rates at 5.8%, but they ended the year under 3%. Last year, Bankrate predicted 5.25% by the end of 2023, instead, we’re at 7.5%

So, what do you do if you’re hoping to buy? Weigh your options. How much are you paying per month? How would that compare to mortgage payments? How much would you save in taxes buy owning? Which predictions do you believe?

Don’t rush into it. Do what makes sense for you.

Want to discuss? Have a comment?

Drop me a line a steve@myfolsom.com, 916 718 9577

Steve Heard – eXp Realty of Northern California, Inc – DRE#01368503Ear a